Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.