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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the current race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still