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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.